Daily Balajisms - AR glasses as the next convergence device
The most predictable invention of 2020s
Balaji Srinivasan thinks that AR glasses will be to this decade, what a smartphone was to the last decade. Many people are at first amazed by the VR headset experience, but they don’t use the device regularly.
The sales of VR headsets are growing every year, the experience of using them is getting better, and Facebook even rebranded into Meta, showcasing their commitment to build metaverse. But there hasn’t been an iPhone moment yet.
Currently it’s a commitment to put on a VR headset, but the Big Tech companies and new startups are working on AR glasses. They will have the form of regular glasses.
You will be able to take pictures and record videos with them, like with Snapchat Spectacles, you could do VR with them like with Oculus/Meta headset, like with Google Glass and HoloLens from Microsoft you can get overlays and holograms, and they will be programable like Apple ARKit.
Balaji often says that most of our lives will be spent in the “Matrix”, meaning that majority of our waking hours will be mediated through some kind of digital interface.
AR glasses can have many second-order consequences – building stronger communities, and support the rise of startup societies and ultimately network states.
Balaji mentions that mobile made us more mobile. At first, the experience of using mobile apps was worse than using desktop ones, but the fact that we could access info on the go was crucial.
AR glasses will free our hands and we will be able to access info while looking around and up, not only looking down at our mobile phones, like today.
Google Glass and HoloLens are used currently in the enterprise contexts, freeing hands of workers and advancing vocational education and training. But once the iPhone moment for AR glasses happens, they will go mainstream.
Mobile phones as a convergence device replaced many gadgets, like cameras, torch lights, MP3 players… and also less obvious areas, like retail banks and debit cards. Back in 2007, with the rise of M-Pesa mobile banking in Kenya, Africans leapfrogged the West.
Mobile phones also had indirect consequences, like the rise of EVs and electromobility due to tech progress in batteries, or the spread of Arab Spring protests enabled by Twitter.
Initiatives to bridge the digital divide, like One Laptop Per Child were too early, says Balaji. Because the convergence device happened to be a smartphone.
With AR glasses we will bridge the digital with physical, and people will be able to recognize building and members of their startup societies/network unions through glowing sigils that will be visible only to those communities.
With web3, NFTs and smart locks people will be able to enter places based on membership. While non-members won’t be able to even spot them. Secret societies will have a comeback.
My personal wild guess is that Elon Musk, with his hardware experience from Tesla and SpaceX and the recent purchase of Twitter, could be a new entrant to the AR glasses race, that could usher the iPhone moment – with something like Tesla glasses.